Matthew C.
Harding, PhD
Professor of Economics
and Statistics
MATTHEW C. HARDING

Matthew is an Econometrician and Data Scientist who develops techniques at the intersection of machine learning and econometrics to answer Big Data questions related to individual consumption and investment decisions in areas such as health, energy, and consumer finance. He often focuses on the analysis of "Deep Data", large and information-rich data sets derived from many seemingly unrelated sources but linked across individuals to provide novel behavioral insights. He is particularly interested in the role of technology and automation to induce behavior change and help individuals live happier and more sustainable lives. At the same time his research emphasizes solutions for achieving triple-win strategies. These are solutions that not only benefit individual consumers, but are profitable for firms, and have a large positive impact on society at large.

As an Econometrician he is currently exploring the potential of machine learning methods in Economics. He is interested in the estimation of high-dimensional models and the use of deep learning methods to produce interpretable economic insights. He also designs and evaluates large scale field experiments in collaboration with industry leaders to measure the individual and social consequences of individual choices and the extent to which Big Data can be used to improve choices and lead to more accurate and targeted programs and products. His research relies on terabyte sized data sets of individual choices and consumption profiles, to build a comprehensive framework for understanding economic behavior and develop new strategies for achieving triple-win solutions.

Matt's company, EcoMetricx, employs cutting edge AI to manage large scale databases, extract actionable insights from complex customer data, and predict new trends. Their team of experts design unique programs and experiments which maximize revenue and customer satisfaction using economic principles and insights from behavioral science. They build advanced custom causal statistical and machine learning tools to provide quantitative evaluations of customer behavior and forecasts.

EXPERIENCE

Assistant Professor
Stanford University (2007 - 2014)

Associate Professor
Duke University (2014 - 2016)

Professor of Economics and Statistics
University of California-Irvine (2016 - Now)

EDUCATION

University College London
B.A. Economics and Philosophy,
First Class Honours (1997 - 2000)

University of Oxford
M.Phil. Economics (2000 - 2002)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ph.D. Economics,
Robert L. Bishop Fellowship (2002 - 2007)

Publications

Books
  1. "Modern Business Analytics: Practical Data Science for Decision Making", with Matt Taddy and Leslie Hendrix, 2022.

Econometrics, Machine Learning:
  1. "Analysis of Proximity Informed User Behavior in a Global Online Social Network", with Hanqiao Zhang and Nils Breitmar, 2024.
  2. "Combining Instrumental Variable Estimators for a Panel Model with Factors", with Carlos Lamarche and Chris Muris, 2024.
  3. "Using grouped data to estimate revenue heterogeneity in online advertising auctions", with Nils Breitmar and Carlos Lamarche, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113, 2023.
  4. "Hybrid U-Net: Semantic segmentation of high-resolution satellite images to detect war destruction", with Shima Nabiee, Jonathan Hersh, and Nader Bagherzadeh, Machine Learning with Applications, 9, 2022.
  5. "Estimation of a Factor-Augmented Linear Model with Applications Using Student Achievement Data", with C. Lamarche and C. Muris, 2022.
  6. "Managers versus Machines: Do Algorithms Replicate Human Intuition in Credit Ratings", with G. Vasconcelos, 2022.
  7. "Predicting Mortality from Credit Reports", with G. De Giorgi and G. Vasconcelos, Financial Planning Review, 4(4), 2021.
  8. "Small Steps with Big Data: Using Machine Learning in Energy and Environmental Economics", with C. Lamarche, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 13, 2021.
  9. "Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression Models", with C. Lamarche and H. Pesaran, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35(3): 294-314, 2020.
  10. "A Panel Quantile Approach to Attrition Bias in Big Data: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment", with C. Lamarche, Journal of Econometrics, 211(1), 2019.
  11. "Penalized Estimation of a Quantile Count Model for Panel Data", with C. Lamarche, Annals of Economics and Statistics, 134, 2019.
  12. "Estimation of a Factor-Augmented Linear Panel Data Model with Applications Using Student Achievement Data", with C. Lamarche and C. Muris, submitted, 2019.
  13. "Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression Models", with C. Lamarche and H. Pesaran, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35(3), 2020.
  14. "Deep Autoencoder for Pattern Identification in High-Dimensional Consumer Purchase Data", with A. Parret and Y. Xue, working paper, 2018.
  15. "Improving Convergence in the Bayesian Mixed Logit Choice Model", with J. Hausman and Y. Xue, working paper, 2018.
  16. "Penalized Quantile Regression with Semiparametric Correlated Effects: An Application with Heterogeneous Preferences", with C. Lamarche, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(2): 342-358, 2017.
  17. "Finite Sample Bias Corrections for IV Estimation with Weak and Many Instruments", with J. Hausman, and C. Palmer, Advances in Econometrics, 36, 2016.
  18. "Scalable Bayesian Non-Negative Tensor Factorization for Massive Count Data", with C. Hu, P. Rai, C. Chen and L. Carin, Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, 9285, 2015.
  19. "Strong Limit of the Extreme Eigenvalues of a Symmetrized Auto-Cross Covariance Matrix", with Wang, C., B. Jin, Z.D. Bai, K. Nair. Annals of Applied Probability, 2015, 25(6), 3624-3683.
  20. "A Bayesian Semiparametric Competing Risk Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity", with Burda, M. and J. Hausman, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(3): 353-376, 2014.
  21. "Estimating the Number of Factors in Large Dimensional Factor Models", workingpaper, 2014.
  22. "Limiting Spectral Distribution of a Symmetrized Auto-Cross Covariance Matrix", with Jin, B., C. Wang, Z.D. Bai, K. Nair. Annals of Applied Probability, 24(3): 1199-1225, 2014.
  23. "Estimating and Testing a Quantile Regression Model with Interactive Effects", with C. Lamarche, Journal of Econometrics, 178: 101-113, 2014.
  24. "Panel Probit with Flexible Correlated Effects: Quantifying Technology Spillovers in the Presence of Latent Heterogeneity", with Burda, M. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013.
  25. "A Poisson Mixture Model of Discrete Choice", with M. Burda and J. Hausman, Journal of Econometrics, 166(2): 184-203, 2012.
  26. "Quantile Regression Estimation of Panel Duration Models with Censored Data", with C.Lamarche, Advances in Econometrics, 2012.
  27. "Least Squares Estimation of a Panel Data Model with Multifactor Error Structure and Endogenous Covariates", with C. Lamarche, Economics Letters, 111(3), 2011.
  28. "Quantile Regression for Time-Series-Cross-Section Data", with Alexander, M. and C. Lamarche, International Journal of Statistics and Management System, 6(1-2): 47-72, 2011.
  29. "A Quantile Regression Approach for Estimating Panel Data Models Using Instrumental Variables", with C. Lamarche, Economics Letters, 104(3), 2009.
  30. "A Bayesian Mixed Logit-Probit Model for Multinomial Choice", with M. Burda and J. Hausman, Journal of Econometrics, 147(2): 232-246, 2008.
  31. "Explaining the Single Factor Bias of Arbitrage Pricing Models in Finite Samples", Economics Letters, 99(1), 2008.
  32. "Using a Laplace Approximation to Estimate the Random Coefficients Logit Model by Non-linear Least Squares", with J. Hausman, International Economic Review, 48(4): 1311-1328, 2007.

Health
  1. "Heterogeneity in the Effects of Food Vouchers on Nutrition Among Low-Income Adults: A Quantile Regression Analysis", with J. White, G. Vasoncelos, M. Carroll, C. Gardner, S. Basu, H. Seligman, American Journal of Health Promotion, 35(2), 2021.
  2. "Emotional Eating in Adults: The role of Socio-Demographics, Lifestyle Behaviors, and Self-Regulation -- Findings from a US National Study", with R. Barak, K. Shuval, Q Li, R Oetjen, J. Drope, A. Yaroch, and B. Fennis, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(4), 2021.
  3. "Evaluating a USDA pilot program to incentivize the purchase of fresh produce among SNAP beneficiaries in supermarkets", with P. Rummo, D. Noriega, A. Parret, O. Hesterman and B. Elbel, Health Affairs, 38(11): 1816-1823, 2019.
  4. "The Sales Impact of Featuring Healthy Foods, Indulgent Foods, or Both: Findings from a Large-Scale Retail Field Study", with G. Fitzsimons and P. Liu, Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, 2018.
  5. "The intergenerational transmission of obesity: The role of time preferences and self-control", with Michal Stoklosa, Kerem Shuval, Jeffrey Drope, Rusty Tchernis, Mark Pachucki, Amy Yaroch, Economics and Human Biology, 28: 92-106, 2018.
  6. "The Effect of Prices on Nutrition: Comparing the Impact of Product-and Nutrient-Specific Taxes", with M. Lovenheim, Journal of Health Economics, 53: 53-71, 2017.
  7. "No Fat, No Sugar, No Salt... No Problem? Prevalence of "Low-Content" Nutrient Claims and Their Associations with the Nutritional Profile of Food and Beverage Purchases in the United States", with L. Tailie, S. Ng, Y. Xue, and E. Busey, Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 117(9): 1366-13674, 2017.
  8. "Deal or no deal? The prevalence and nutritional quality of price promotions among US food and beverage purchases", with L. Tailie, S. Ng and Y. Xue, Appetite, 117: 365-372, 2017.
  9. "Does Breastfeeding Duration Decrease Childhood Obesity? An Instrumental Variables Analysis of Births in Oregon in 2009", with S. Basu, M. Bartick, E. Rodriguez, J. White, Pediatric Obesity, 12(4): 304-311, 2017.
  10. "Time Preferences and Physical Activity: Insights from Behavioral Economics", with K. Shuval, J. Drope, M. Stoklosa, A. Yaroch and M. Pachucki, Health Behavior and Policy Review 4(1), 53-59, 2017.
  11. "Economic Preferences and Fast Food Consumption in US adults: Insights from Behavioral Economics", with K. Shuval, M. Stoklosa, M. Pachucki, A. Yaroch, J. Drope, Preventive Medicine, 93: 204-210, 2016.
  12. "The Effect of Statutory Rape Laws on Teen Birth Rates", with M. Frakes, American Law and Economics Review, 2015.
  13. "Within-Family Obesity Associations: Evaluation of Parent, Child, and Sibling Relationships", Pachucki, M., M. Lovenheim, and M. Harding. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 47(4): 382-391, 2014.
  14. "The Heterogeneous Geographic and Socioeconomic Incidence of Cigarette Taxes: Evidence from Nielsen HomeScan Data", with E. Leibtag and M. Lovenheim, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(4), 2012.
  15. "Quantifying the Impact of Economic Crises on Infant Mortality in Advanced Economies", with M. Alexander and C. Lamarche, Applied Economics, 2010.
  16. "The Deterrent Effect of Death Penalty Eligibility: Evidence from the Adoption of Child Murder Eligibility Factors", with M. Frakes, American Law and Economics Review, 11(2): 451-497 2009.

Environment and Energy:
  1. "The (alleged) Environmental and Social Benefits of Dynamic Pricing", with K. Kettler, C. Lamarche and L. Ma, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 205, 2023.
  2. "The Environmental and Social Benefits of Dynamic Pricing", with Carlos Lamarche, Kyle Kettler, and Lala Ma, 2021.
  3. "Does Absolution Promote Sin? A Conservationist's Dilemma", with D. Rapson, Environmental and Resource Economics, 73: 923-955, 2019.
  4. "Penalized Forecasting in Panel Data Models: Predicting Household Electricity Demand from Smart Meter Data", with C. Lamarche and H. Pesaran, working paper, 2018.
  5. "Household Response to Time-Varying Electricity Pricing", with S. Sexton, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 9, 2017.
  6. "Empowering Consumers through Data and Smart Technology: Experimental Evidence on the Consequences of Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Policies", with C. Lamarche, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 35(4): 906-931, 2016.
  7. "Goal Setting and Energy Conservation", with A. Hsiaw, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 107: 209-227, 2014.
  8. "Environmental Justice: Evidence from Superfund Cleanup Durations", with M. Burda, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 107, 2014.
  9. "Measurement & Verification for Behavioral Programs: Evaluating Programs That Have Gone Full-Scale", EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 3002001269, 2014.
  10. "Split Incentives in Residential Energy Consumption", with K. Gillingham and D. Rapson, Energy Journal, 33(2): 37-62, 2012.

Other works:
  1. "Big Data in Economics", with J. Hersh, IZA World of Labor, 2018.
  2. "Good Data Public Policies", in The Future of Data-Driven Innovation, US Chamber of Commerce, 2014.
  3. "Enforcing Regulation: The Impact of Violating Drinking Water Standards on Infant Health at Birth in the US", SIEPR Stanford University, 2013.
  4. "Agreement beyond Polarization: Spectral Network Analysis of Congressional Roll Call Votes", working paper, 2008.
  5. "Endogenous and Schumpeterian Growth (Chapter 14)", with Carlin, W., and D. Soskice in Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions and Policies, OUP, 2006.
  6. "Exogenous Growth Theory (Chapter 13)", with Carlin, W., and D. Soskice in Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions and Policies, OUP, 2006.

News

Research

Hybrid U-Net: Semantic segmentation of high-resolution satellite images to detect war destruction

We propose a multi-scale feature fusion approach and design a multi-scale skip-connected Hybrid U-Net for segmenting high-resolution satellite images of Syria to detect building damage of various size.

Link to paper

Book

Data Science Textbook

New data-science textbook explains the "why", rather than the "what" of decision-making.

Learn more

Interview

Using big data and deep learning to make healthier choices

UCI School of Social Sciences

Video Link

Talk

Big Problems? Big Data.

Duke University

Video Link

Collaborators

Ana Gomez Lemmen Meyer

Bio

Ana is the Lead Scientist and Founder of Ravena Analytics. Previously, she was a Senior Economist at Amazon, where she used economics and data science to provide insights for key decision-making. Her research leverages open data, econometrics, and data tools to inform economic and social topics, with a special interest in water management and food waste systems.

Ana holds a Ph.D in Economics from Stanford University, where she conducted research in public economics and applied econometrics. She served as a Lecturer at the Economics Department of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). 

 

Links

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ana-gomez-lemmen-meyer/ 

 

 Papers

Gomez Lemmen Meyer, Ana and Cielo Lutino, Los Angeles County’s SB 1383 Food Recovery Study: An Examination of the Edible Food Recovery Mandate for Tier II businesses 

(work in progress) 

 

▪ Gomez Lemmen Meyer, Ana and Stephanie Russo Baca. Water Shortage Sharing in the Lower Rio Chama Watershed: Ecological, Social, and Economic Outcomes (working paper, 2025-01-30) 

 

Gomez Lemmen Meyer, Ana and Stephanie Russo Baca. The Rio Chama Water Shortage Sharing Agreement: Water Curtailment, Watershed Health, and Community Values (working paper, 2025-01-14)

PhD Students

Maximianne Castaneda

I am currently a Ph.D. student in Economics at the University of California, Irvine. I hold a B.A. in Computer Science and Economics from Occidental College. My primary fields of interest are Econometrics and Industrial Organization, with a particular focus on the intersection of Machine Learning and Economics.


https://github.com/maximianne 

www.linkedin.com/in/maximianne-castaneda

Extrapolating Treatment Effects to a Target Population

In the process of researching different methodologies to extrapolate Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) results across locations using pooled data, ensuring robust external validity. I am employing econometric and statistical models, including inverse probability of sampling weights, stratification, and calibration weighting, to adjust for selection bias and population differences. These extrapolation methods are evaluated on simulated data with diverse data-generating processes to validate performance before applying to real-world datasets.

Russell Leonard

Russ is a PhD candidate in economics at UCI broadly interested in public/urban/labor topics, particularly those involving the internet and its infrastructure. His current work explores user responses to abusive online peers and its measurement, as well as quality competition between legacy and fiber-optic broadband internet providers. He has also co-authored papers on public health insurance and youth risky behaviors. Russ holds a B.A. in economics and philosophy from the University of Colorado-Boulder and an M.A. in economics from San Diego State University. Outside of work, he enjoys hiking, fishing, and cooking. 

 

Current/Recent Projects

“Willingness to Play: Online Content Moderation and Abusive Peers” In Progress

 

“California’s 2020 Medi-Cal Expansion to Young Adults and Coverage among 19-25-Year-Old Noncitizens” (with Brandy J. Lipton) In Progress

 

"Do Vertical ID Laws Curb Teenage Drinking and Tobacco Use?” (with Joseph J. Sabia) Forthcoming at Contemporary Economic Policy

 

“High-speed internet access and diffusion of new technologies in non metro areas” (with Kangoh Lee) 2023. Telecommunications Policy 47(9), 102620

Matthew C. Harding, PhD
Professor of Economics and Statistics
Copyright © 2025 Matthew C. Harding. All rights reserved.